How a refund lay works
A money-back offer gives you a free bet only if your first bet loses. So the losing side of a normal qualifying lay is worth more than the winning side: it has the lay winnings and the free bet.
The calculator lays a little less than normal. That keeps more profit on the winning side and less on the losing side, until both are about equal once you count the free bet at the value you expect to keep. The lay stake is:
lay stake = (back stake × back odds − free bet value) ÷ (lay odds − commission)
A worked example
You bet £20 at 6.0 on an offer that refunds a losing bet as a £20 free bet. The lay odds are 6.4 at 2% commission. You expect to keep 80% of the free bet, so it is worth £16 to you.
- A normal qualifying lay is £18.81. It loses about £1.57 if the bet wins and gives the free bet if it loses.
- The refund lay is £16.30. If the bet wins, you keep about £11.98 in cash.
- If the bet loses, you are down about £4.03 in cash and have the £20 free bet. Lay it and keep about £16, for a total of about £11.97.
Read the offer terms first
Money-back offers differ in the details that change the numbers. Check these on the bookmaker's own page:
- Maximum refund. A stake above the cap gets no more back. Enter the refund you will actually get.
- Refund type. A free bet, cash, a casino bonus or bet tokens split into parts. A token with odds limits keeps less value.
- Qualifying conditions. Minimum odds, eligible markets, and whether the bet must be the first on the account.
- Expiry. A free bet you do not use is worth nothing.
Related tools and guides
- Standard calculator: lay the free bet when you get it.
- Reload offers: where money-back offers fit in a reload routine.
- How to use free bets without losing: what a stake-not-returned free bet is worth.
Risk-free bet calculator FAQ
What is a risk-free bet?
It is an older name for a money-back offer: if your first bet loses, the bookmaker refunds the stake, usually as a free bet. UK bookmakers now call these offers "money back as a free bet" or similar. The refund is not cash, and it is not risk-free on its own. You still lose the stake if the bet loses and you do nothing else.
Why is the lay stake smaller than a normal qualifying lay?
If the back bet loses, you get the free bet as well as the lay winnings. A normal lay ignores the free bet, so all its value lands on the losing side. A smaller lay, called an underlay, moves part of that value to the winning side. The calculator picks the lay that makes both sides about equal.
What value should I enter for the free bet?
Enter the share of the free bet you expect to lock in when you lay it. A stake-not-returned free bet laid at odds around 5.0 usually keeps 75% to 80% of its face value. If the free bet has to go on short odds or a restricted market, enter less. Work it out with the standard calculator if you know the odds you will use.
Should I lay a refund bet at all?
Yes, if you want a known result. The calculator removes the gamble from the first bet. The losing-side total still depends on you using the free bet before it expires, so set a reminder.